Cepea, 30/12/2024 – Brazilian corn supply fell in 2024, due to weather that hurt productivity. On the other hand, global supply for the 2023/24 season increased. In Brazil, corn prices were pressured in the first half of the year, reflecting the summer-crop harvest, good development of the second crop, and estimates pointing to record global output. With successive declines throughout the first half, prices hit their lowest levels of the year in July. Export deals remained slow in the first half, as buyers delayed purchases, waiting for steeper declines as the second-crop harvest progressed. Between August and November, however, prices rebounded, due to lower domestic availability. In addition, hot, dry weather left farmers concerned about planting both the summer crop and the second crop to be grown in 2025. However, the return of heavier rains from the second half of October favored summer-crop planting and eased – or even ruled out – such concerns. In aggregate, Brazilian output for 2023/24 totaled 115,7 million tonnes, 12,3% lower than in 2022/23. The surplus was 40,42 million tonnes, 19% lower than in the previous season and the lowest since 2021/22, according to Conab. With a smaller surplus, Brazilian exports also declined. It is worth noting that 2024 was the third consecutive year of declines in nominal prices. Thus, with lower supply and prices, it can be said that 2024 was not a favorable year for corn sellers in Brazil. Perhaps the environment favored buyers instead. Source: Cepea (www.cepea.esalq.usp.br)