Cepea, 19/08/2025 – Cepea surveys show domestic wheat prices fell over the past week, in line with the external market and import parity. According to the Center, wheat supply and demand estimates for Brazil continue to point to slightly lower output in 2025; however, larger carryover stocks (July/25), driven by strong imports, should keep domestic availability high. This scenario, combined with declines in external prices and the dollar (which favor imports), pressured domestic cereal prices. According to data released this month by Conab and analyzed by Cepea, Brazil's wheat area is estimated at 2,55 million hectares, a striking 16,7% decline from last season. However, yields could grow 19%, to 3,07 t/ha, which would result in output of 7,81 million tonnes in 2025, just 1% below 2024's. Source: Cepea (www.cepea.esalq.usp.br)